Road Warriors

Mrs G and I are traveling tomorrow, but this time will take laptops and cellular modems.

There may be a gap in postings of a day or so while we get these to work in darkest mainland Europe.

Having A Laugh

There’s a report that some biofuels produce more greenhouse gases than regular gasoline. This may or may not be true, but it’s a reminder that CO2 is a quite minor greenhouse gas.

Measurements of emissions from the burning of biofuels derived from rapeseed and maize have been found to produce more greenhouse gas emissions than they save.

Other biofuels, especially those likely to see greater use over the next decade, performed better than fossil fuels but the study raises serious questions about some of the most commonly produced varieties.

Rapeseed and maize biodiesels were calculated to produce up to 70 per cent and 50 per cent more greenhouse gases respectively than fossil fuels. The concerns were raised over the levels of emissions of nitrous oxide, which is 296 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

Even the Greens on Wikipedia admit biggest greenhouse gas is water vapor:

Water vapor is a larger contributor to the greenhouse effect that CO2. “Just a rise of 1% of water vapour could raise the global average temperature of Earth’s surface more then 4 degrees Celsius.”

There are plenty more (my emphasis):

Examples of the atmospheric lifetime and GWP for several greenhouse gases include:

• CO₂ has a variable atmospheric lifetime, and cannot be specified precisely Recent work indicates that recovery from a large input of atmospheric CO₂ from burning fossil fuels will result in an effective lifetime of tens of thousands of years. Carbon dioxide is defined to have a GWP of 1 over all time periods.
• Methane has an atmospheric lifetime of 12 ± 3 years and a GWP of 62 over 20 years, 23 over 100 years and 7 over 500 years. The decrease in GWP associated with longer times is associated with the fact that the methane is degraded to water and CO₂ by chemical reactions in the atmosphere.
• Nitrous oxide has an atmospheric lifetime of 120 years and a GWP of 296 over 100 years.
• CFC-12 has an atmospheric lifetime of 100 years and a GWP of 10600 (over 100 years).
• HCFC-22 has an atmospheric lifetime of 12.1 years and a GWP of 1700 (over 100 years).
• Tetrafluoromethane has an atmospheric lifetime of 50,000 years and a GWP of 5700 (over 100 years).
• Sulfur hexafluoride has an atmospheric lifetime of 3,200 years and a GWP of 22000 (over 100 years).

If Sulfur hexafluoride is indeed 22,000 times more greenhousy than CO2, here’s the basis of another scare theory:

SF₆ plasma is also used in the semiconductor industry as an etchant.

Let’s assume that the world has recently become warmer – what’s the biggest change since WW2?

Semiconductors.

So we must blame Gordon Moore, and start rationing PCs.

As well, of course, as avoiding biofuels.

We’ve Passed The French Test!

France has decided to join us, so we must be winning.

The French are a deeply opportunist people who only do things that are of immediate value to them – think of 60 million Bill Gateses.

Now they’ve decided that a) Mullahs with nukes will harm France, and b) The US is winning in Iraq, and is not a busted flush. And so:

President Nicolas Sarkozy of France has directly accused Iran of seeking a nuclear bomb and urged “stronger sanctions” against Teheran.

It was the latest sign that Mr Sarkozy is positioning France as America’s key European ally in tackling Teheran’s nuclear ambitions.

Mr Sarkozy said France did not want a war, but flatly declared in a television interview that “Iran is trying to obtain an atomic bomb”.

He added: “That is unacceptable and I tell the French people it is unacceptable.”

It’s not just talk – here’s a very good suggestion:

Representatives of the Security Council’s five permanent members met in Washington yesterday to discuss more sanctions, but China and Russia are both opposed to the move, pointing to a new agreement between Iran and inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

France has countered by suggesting that European countries bypass the UN and impose bilateral sanctions on Iran. These measures could have a severe effect on Teheran.

Plus they’re learning from success:

After years of spurning British political methods as incompatible with the French social model, Gallic ministers are flocking to London to seek inspiration on how to modernise their government.

At least six French ministers have crossed the channel since Nicolas Sarkozy was elected president in May.

If they keep this up, we might just start drinking their wine again.

Crocodile Fodder

Churchill said ” An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile – hoping it will eat him last” and by crocodiles he meant Germans. But now they’re doing the feeeding.

Germany (helped by Switzerland) was the chief enabler of the nuclear arming of Pakistan, Iran, North Korea and now maybe Syria. And they can’t seem to stop:

On Sunday, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said with respect to Iran, “We have to prepare for the worst, and the worst, sir, is war.” He called for “more effective sanctions,” as a follow on to President Nicholas Sarkozy’s warning last month that the alternative is “an Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran.”

…The welcome change in French attitudes, moreover, is not being matched by Germany, which in some respects is literally trying to demonstrate a “business as usual” approach.

Germany exported about $5bn. in goods to Iran last year, representing a substantial growth in exports over the last six years.

This year, German exports have reportedly dropped 20 percent, presumably due to the Western sanctions campaign. But Germany is dragging its feet, both economically and diplomatically, with respect to tightening the pressure on Teheran.

As Reuters reported on Friday, “A split has emerged in the coalition of Western powers pressuring Iran to freeze its nuclear enrichment program, as France backs US calls for a new round of sanctions while Germany urges restraint.”

Germany, together with France and the UK (the EU-3) has been negotiating with the Mullahs since early 2003, and claimed success when:

On October 21, 2003, in Tehran, the Iranian government and EU-3 Foreign Ministers issued a statement in which Iran agreed to co-operate with the IAEA, to sign and implement an Additional Protocol as a voluntary, confidence-building measure, and to suspend its enrichment and reprocessing activities during the course of the negotiations.

Of course it didn’t happen, and it never will until the Mullahs have a satisfactory inventory of nukes and delivery systems.

The German government knows this, and still feeds the Iranian with advanced technology. They presumably calculate that the 2,200 Km range Shahab 3D is no threat.

But when the North Koreans (Iran’s new best friend) get the bugs out of the 4,000+ Km range Taepodong-2, Berlin is, er, screwed.

A Queens Welcome For Ahmadinejad

Here’s an excellent suggestion on how New York should greet this evil little creep.

The person who could prevent this entire farce from taking place is the district attorney of Queens County, Richard Brown.

When Mr. Ahmadinejad flies into John F. Kennedy International Airport, he’ll be in Queens.

That is the borough of Specialist Jonathan Rivadeneira of the U.S. Army’s 3rd Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, who was killed on Friday in Iraq by an improvised explosive device of the sort that American officials say are supplied and crafted by Iran.

Rivadeneira’s death left his mother, Martha Clark of Jackson Heights, Queens, childless.

Let Mr. Brown seek a warrant for Mr. Ahmadinejad’s arrest and give him a true civics lesson in an American dock. Let’s just say we have no doubt that, were a warrant issued…New York’s Finest would be delighted to enforce it.

This would involve a breach of diplomatic immunity, but we know Ahmadinejad is relaxed about that.

Make A Desert And Call It Peace

Rice wants Israel to cede the one thing it lacks – territory – to a bunch of totalitarian killer states, in return for peace. Every neighbor of Israel, with the exception of Egypt, has reneged on every previous deal of this type. We must hope her process fails. Because if she succeeds, she’ll trigger the greatest mass slaughter the world has known.

Readers will know this, but it sometimes helps to state the obvious.

Rice:

There are many obstacles to overcome through hard work ahead of the Washington conference in November, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told Israeli President Shimon Peres in a private meeting in Jerusalem Thursday…

In her meeting with Peres, Rice said it was time to advance the peace process. The secretary of state added that despite the many hurdles to overcome, there was an atmosphere of peace and sincere will to reach an agreement between both parties.

Israel has these neighbors: Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Hamastan (Gaza), Fatahstan (West Bank).

Egypt is not actively attacking Israel (it has too much US aid to lose).

Syria is deploying nerve gas equipped Scuds, may be building nukes, and has resumed killing Lebanese politicians that oppose it.

The Lebanese territory ceded by Israel is run by another terror group that (protected by the UN) has rearmed to at least its pre-2006 war level.

Hamastan was ceded by Israel 2 years ago, is now entirely controlled by a terrorist group committed to Israel’s destruction which is busily rocketing Israel.

Fatahstan is run by the group responsible for this (my ellipsis):

Between 2000 and 2006, the unit has succeeded in nearly seven bombings (in Israel) that have killed 37 and injured 250 people.

Here’s a map of the Middle East, courtesy the Ariel Center that shows the territory Israel has available to cede to these homicidal neighbors:

Rice and her fellow appeasers in Europe should know that the Manhattan Project was led by Jews, that materials sciences and nuclear physics have moved on immensely since current nuke designs were frozen in the 60s, and that in consequence mortally-threatened Israel is quite capable of producing weapons that put H-bombs in the shade.

In that case the red and orange parts of the map could end up deserts.

That’s a sort of peace.

Bush Infinitely More Popular Than Congress

Here’s Reuters, edited to remove Dem damage limitation.

A paltry 11 percent rated Congress positively, beating the previous low of 14 percent in July.

…29 percent of Americans gave Bush a positive grade for his job performance, below his worst Zogby poll mark of 30 percent in March.

At -3 points every 2 months, Congress will hit zero in April next year.

At -1 point every 6 months, Bush will leave office at 26.5% approval.

26.5/0 is infinity.

Italian Lesson

This supports our earlier post suggesting citizens with corrupt governments have more social coherence than we have in our high-trust societies.

In wonderful but corrupt Italy (CPI score 4.9, worse than Malaysia), the citizens are revolting (my ellipsis);

The Italians…are not reserved people…more than 330,000 of them queued for hours in the hot sun recently to tell their politicians: vaffanculo! (roughly the equivalent of “f*** you”).

Led by Beppe Grillo, a chubby, bearded comic who is Italy’s version of Michael Moore, the masses rallied to protest against corruption and back-slapping. The protest even reached London, with a group of expats forming a V in Piccadilly Circus.

Grillo organised the whole thing through his blog, which is now, improbably, in the world’s top 10 most-read list. The success of V-Day, as it was quickly dubbed, has resulted in a third of Italians supporting Grillo for prime minister, according to a poll by Sky Television.

Grillo and his followers are not making excessive demands. They want to be able to vote for an MP directly, rather than for a party. They want no criminals in parliament (currently one in 10 has a conviction). Lastly, they want a ban on so-called “professional politicians”, who serve a couple of terms to boost their business contacts and win lucrative contracts.

The Italian president’s response was, er, Italian:

Prodi’s response to the vaffanculo! from the public was to stick two fingers up himself. You get the politicians you deserve, he said, pointing out that they are normal people like everyone else in Italy, not some special class of lizard men.

One in ten Italians with a conviction? I don’t think so.

Brits should follow this example to protest the many impositions of their despotic state, including state removal of newborn babies from their mothers and one-hour-notice eviction of old people from nursing homes.

 

Bye Bye Belgium

In case you missed this on Taranto today:

Someone put Belgium up for bid on eBay, and someone else bid $17 million for it, Agence France-Presse reports. But there was bad news for the winning bidder: eBay canceled the auction.

“A spokesman for the online auctioneer says it cannot host the sale of anything virtual or unrealistic.”

We’ve been to Belgium, and that’s a pretty good description of the place.

There’s a case for buying it just to get rid of the EU. But the nation is currently splitting into Flanders and Wallonia, while its thuggish cops beat up lawmakers who protest Islamicization.

So I’d wait until it’s properly dead, then use it to house the UK’s illegal immigrants.

If the courts don’t rule that out as too Cruel and Unusual.

Bayes And Brit Banks

The Brit MSM is telling Brit savers they’re wrong to pull their money out of a troubled bank, since it’s been “guaranteed” by Brown’s government. In the immortal words of John Bolton, they have to be kidding.

Here’s the London Daily Telegraph:

It would be wrong to queue today

The sight of queues snaking along streets yesterday as people waited to withdraw money from Northern Rock was clearly too much for the Prime Minister.

For obviously political reasons, the Bank of England promised to guarantee deposits in Northern Rock, and to provide the same facility for other such institutions…

A deep breath needs to be taken all round, and the banks themselves need to start lending to each other again before an entirely unnecessary panic is caused by their illogical behaviour. Also the public, safe in these ill-advised Bank guarantees, would be advised not to queue today, and foster further irrational panic.

It’s true pulling your money out of a bank may cause it to collapse, if many others do so at the same time. But to hold back on the basis of a government pledge is also risky. All governments lie, this one habitually – for example insisting against the facts that the repackaged EU constitution is nothing of the sort.

So would it be rational for Brits to pull their lifetime savings out of Northern Rock?

Either consciously or unconsciously they’ll use Bayes’ theorem, weighting the risk of an event by its cost to them, and comparing the result with the alternatives (spreading it across other banks, or keeping it in cash in safe deposit).

Consider first the risk:

- You can probably rely on existing guarantees to savers which pay a maximum of £31,700 if a bank goes bust.

- You can only possibly rely on government assurances, since it won’t get re-elected if millions lose most of their savings. But such promises could easily be dropped if more important crises develop, and that’s quite likely because:

British citizens are the most personally indebted in the world and total UK personal debt, including mortgages, has been estimated at £1.3trillion.

That means the UK economy will tank sometime soon, bringing great pain to all.

So I’d guess your risk is zero if you have less than £31,700 deposited, and 50% for any amount above that.

For a couple close to retirement who have saved £250,000, what’s the cost of a 50% chance of losing £218,300?

Assume they plan on using their savings to eke out a pension of £20,000 a year by investing it in an annuity. At 65, this would yield £17,130, giving a total pension of £37,130.

Whereas if they get an annuity only on their safe £31,700 and a 50% risk-reduced balance (£109,150), the annuity pays just £9,651, making their expected pension £29,651.

So trusting the Brit government risks losing 20% of their pension, and that makes it very rational to pull their money out.

From a macro perspective, this means the UK economy is now quite unstable, because older folks who distrust the current government (I’m guessing this is the majority of savers) will stage runs on any banks that look somewhat unsafe.