Nuclear Consequences

February 10, 2005

The left and the EUnuchs seem pretty relaxed about North Korea & Iran getting nukes. They won’t like the consequences: by 2008, Japan, Taiwan and Israel will have huge armories of H-bombs. Cause and Effect.

North Korea Confirms It Has Nuclear Weapons says Fox News Plausible, though they haven’t tested one yet. The usual suspects (Annan, Straw) ramble on about the need for other countries (they mean the US) to “engage” the mass murdering nutter who runs North Korea. Meantime, Condi’s Miss Nice act cracked yesterday when, again on Fox, she issued a thinly veiled rebuke to Britain and other European allies for failing to lay down the law to Iran over nuclear weapons. Seems the EUnuchs are relaxed to about the kid-killing Mullahs graduating to wholesale.

The 3 very smart nations threatened by these tyrannies will adopt the only nuclear strategy that’s worked so far – deterrence. In Gandalf’s view, deterrence is highly personal. It means convincing the bad guys that if they attack, they die. The leaders of the Soviet Union showed in WW2 that they didn’t care about losing a few 10s of millions. But being incinerated themselves was another matter.

Now look at North Korea through Japanese eyes. Japan uniquely knows the effect of nuclear weapons. North Korea has been threatening them for years, notably with a missile launch over the Home Islands. Now it can put a bomb on that missile. So they need to convince the nutter that if he tries, he dies. And since there’s a bunch of spider holes where he can hide, that means a very large number of very large bombs.

You can bet that Japan will build will build smaller & more effective weapons than the existing nuclear club: think Honda v GM. Maybe they’ll figure out laser-triggered fusion: small, light, no messy fission.

To move quickly, they’ll probably get help from another embattled but technically smart neighbor – Taiwan. Taiwan knows that as soon as a lefty infests the White House (maybe as soon as 2008), they lose US protection. Then the Chinese will invade, probably using tactical nukes to suppress Taiwan’s formidable air defenses.

If I were Japan and Taiwan, I’d build thousands of very high yield warheads and put them on fast ballistic delivery systems. That’s a very credible second strike.

Repeating the analysis with Israel gives the same answer. Except they already have somewhere between 50 and 500 nuclear weapons, with delivery systems. The Mullahs have claimed that with their nukes they can destroy Israel and then easily absorb a counter-strike. So the Israelis have to convince the kid killers that they can’t hide. And that means massive retaliation against every conceivable Mullah hideout. Think Armageddon.

I think deterrence will stabilize the threats to Japan and Taiwan, but am not so sure about Iran. Maybe the Mullahs will be so attracted to the 82 virgins that they’ll feel lucky. In a subsequent post I’ll explain why in that case Europe will not be a nice place to be…