China Won’t Rule The World

There’s a European fantasy that China will soon overtake the US economically and become the world’s kindly guardian, humiliating those beastly Yanks. Here’s why that won’t happen.

Poverty

In spite of its fast growth, China is very poor:

…(it) is still a developing country, with per capita GDP of about $1,000 per year. …the country is still afflicted by such poverty as to qualify for the world’s biggest slice of World Bank assistance. …the Chinese must feed a quarter of mankind with only 10 per cent of the world’s cultivable land, and with only 25 per cent of the global average per capita water supply.

This gives a higher GDP per capita of $1,700 – still very poor.

The Chinese economy just overtook the Brit economy. That sounds good until you consider that they have 1,300 million people to the Brit 60 million.

Finally, at its current 4% growth rate, the US economy grows about $500 billion a year. China’s GDP is about $2.3 trillion. So the US adds the equivalent of the entire Chinese economy every 4 years.

Corruption

Only uncorrupt nations prosper, but China is very corrupt, rating 78th most trustworthy in the world – a bit more corrupt than Saudi Arabia, Syria and Laos, and a bit less than Lebanon and Rwanda.

(This is why I’m struggling with buying a laptop from Lenovo – citizens of corrupt states make a virtue of deceit and trickery, so how can I trust them?)

They’re Going To Be Nuked

China is a dictatorship so lives through violence against its own citizens and its neighbors. China’s conquest and ethnic cleansing of Tibet is a crime unparalleled since WW2.

China created North Korea and allowed it to develop nuclear weapons and rockets to menace Japan, South Korea, and the US.

Expansionist dictatorships don’t succeed – witness the Nazis and Japanese in WW2. NoKo’s weaponry has ensured that Japan is considering a plan to take NoKo out. (A Japanese friend tells me that they can deploy missiles with thermonuke warheads inside 12 months, and I believe him). So the Chinese dictators have ensured that a vastly more advanced nation can now destroy its client. And them.

If they survive that, the dictators probably won’t survive their invasion of Taiwan. The Taiwanese intelligentsia and army know from the experience of the Tibetans that Chinese occupiers will kill them all. So they must be building nukes as fast as they can – to interdict the Chinese invasion fleet, destroy its missiles, and dust off Peking. Plus they have formidable defenses:

Taiwan launched two Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) interceptors as part of its largest-ever, live-fire military exercise. The AFP reports that the U.S.-made Patriots were fired from mobile launchers on a beach off the northeastern city of Ilan, and successfully shot down an incoming target missile launched some 30 km (18 miles) away. The military exercises…simulated a Chinese invasion and also included fighter jets and ground troops. “This is the first time Patriot missiles were launched before the eyes of the public … to show our determination to safeguard Taiwan,” said President Chen Shui-bian afterwards…

That’s because:

China has 820 ballistic and cruise missiles currently aimed at Taiwan, according to Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian. Speaking today at a forum of Japanese scholars in Taipai, Chen stated that the People’s Liberation Army had deployed 784 ballistic and 36 cruise missiles, adding that the number of missiles is rising at a rate of 120 per year.

Long term there’s good news for the long-suffering Chinese people. When their dictators are killed, the people can seize their freedom – with a bit of help from the West.

UPDATE 7/24
Fixed mysterious formatting errors & tidied up the text.

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