My managerial instincts tell me Blair will resign soon, so this is a brief preemptive-obit.
Tony Blair’s enemies make him a hero – Annan and the aptly named Jack Straw are still trying to undermine him, Brown hates him, and the silly woman he over-promoted is nagging him to curb the uppity Jews.
Blair performed poorly domestically, bumping Brit taxes to German levels while presiding over the most incompetent public administration in modern history. His instinct was to micromanage but he was a terrible manager with a third rate team. Many politicians fail this way – Carter, for example – whereas the stars (Reagan, Thatcher, and possibly GW Bush) were managers before they became pols.
Blair also handed the citizens of Northern Ireland over to the IRA terror/criminal gang – maybe he didn’t want his family to spend the rest of their lives surrounded by guards
But Blair did one thing right. He understood that a world where suicidal Muslim fanatics had nukes would be enormously dangerous for our societies, and possibly our species. Then he acted on that belief.
History will minimize his faults and – if we survive – celebrate his single virtue.
I think he’ll resign soon because he’s executing what I call a Leaving Dance – a behavior common to senior executives who’ve decided to quit but not yet told anyone.
Leaving Dances have many interesting features, and the most important is an abrupt move from alliances that support the current role to ones neeeded for the next role. This behavior is classic:
Blair snubs Bush for carbon date with ArnieBritain and California agreed yesterday to sidestep the Bush administration’s reluctance to tackle global warming by drawing up plans to act together to cut greenhouse gases.
My other evidence is that the president has spotted this too – he’s a manager andwill know all about Leaving Dances, although he’ll probably use a more pithy Texan term for them. His body language towards Blair at their recent press conference was wary and dismissive.
If this anlaysis is correct, expect Blair to resign at his party’s annual conference next month. He’ll probably then look for a new career heading the UN or EU. If those fail, there’s always the lecture circuit.
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