The US ceasefire plan looks like a cave-in that threatens the survival of the State of Israel and strengthens the Islamic Fascists.
Here’s the horrified Jerusalem Post:
…the White House’s sudden decision to return to the language of moral equivalence is very puzzling and disturbing. Presidential spokesman Tony Snow said just after the cabinet decision that “we want an end to violence and we do not want escalations.”
What does this mean? That suddenly the White House sees Israel on the same plane as Hizbullah? Does it mean that President George W. Bush believes that a UN resolution imposed now, perhaps after a watering down by France at the behest of the Arab League, will produce the long-term stability that Washington has said it is seeking?
To promote its plan, the US forced Israel to stop its offensive – maybe Condi Rice threatened to halt the US supply of ordnance. The Israeli tanks rolling at the time stopped in their tracks.
This is terrible militarily – on the battlefield you have to keep moving forward to unbalance the enemy. If you don’t, he digs in and counter attacks. So stalling the advance only makes sense if the IDF isn’t going to fight anymore – if it does renew the attack now, it’ll take many more casualties than it would have done in a fast attack.
The US ceasefire plan does indeed call for the IDF to stop fighting and retreat. But who will stop Hizbollah? They’re not parties to the US plan. Instead the US relies on a “robust” French/Lebanese force that doesn’t come close to the capabilities of the IDF. So the US plan only works if Hizballah is given what it wants – free run of Lebanon so it can deploy the next generation of Iranian rockets to kill Jews with.
That’s what’s going to happen. And it gets worse – a victorious Hizbollah will take control of the Lebanese state – probably after a nasty civil war with the Christians. Iran’s status will be enhanced worldwide since its proxy won and the US’s ally lost. That makes the the Iraq situation unmanageable, since the Shia pols will have to fall in with the demands of now-mighty Iran.
Israel will be attacked from all sides – I’d expect a punch from Syria while the IDF is retreating from Lebanon. No doubt they’ll fight them off, but at a great cost.
Finally the damage to the US will be huge. The Israelis expected support from this administration and instead gets treated the same as Hizbollah. Israel will have to move quickly to source its weapons indigenously, with whoever is prepared to help – my guess is China will fill the breach since it’s desperate for Israeli technology. And all US allies will start looking for insurance against being given the Israel treatment.
This will snowball, because with the resulting chaos in Iraq and Israel fighting for its life, Dems have a perfect demonstration of the failure of the Bush doctrine. So we get a Dem Congress and then a Dem president.
What is George W Bush thinking?