Predictions

This blog tries to make useful predictions about the safety and wealth of the Anglosphere – here are some that are looking good.

1. Blair’s Resignation

Our prediction, although not original, was more robust since it was based on a sharp change in his behavior. This was not picked up by the MSM – probably because of its ignorance of managerial behavior.

2. Drop In US Tourism

In March last year I predicted INS fingerprinting and photographing of every Brit man, woman, child & baby entering the US would cut tourism. That was because in the UK those procedures are used only on criminals. That was a correct prediction (my emphasis):

The US share of international travel has been falling since 1992, but the decline has accelerated since September 11, 2001. Since then America has lost an estimated $286 billion (£152 billion) in revenue from foreign tourists.

While global travel has grown by a fifth, the the US travel industry’s share of the world tourism market has shrunk by a third, from 9% to 6%.

Some of this is the falloff immediately after 9/11, but the rest is courtesy the TSA (which gave Brits a really hard time after the Richard Reid attempted bombing), and the INS measures from September 2004.

None of which is to deny the right of the US to do whatever it wants to visitors, allies included. But through lousy execution the US has taken an economic hit well in excess of Iraqi Freedom’s $150 billion.

But there’s good news – revenues are slowly recovering.

Japan Going Nuclear

We predicted Chinese and NoKo threats against Japan would cause it to build missile defenses and lots of H bombs, dumping its post-WW2 neutrality. It has:

Japan is about to get its most nationalistic prime minister since the 1950s and ardent patriots are celebrating in advance, sensing that their sun is rising after decades of shame.

The resurgence of pride alarms Japan’s principal wartime victims, China and the two Korea’s, but it is winning quiet applause from the United States, which foresees an enduring change in Japanese military policy.

The man in waiting is Shinzo Abe, 51, the chief cabinet secretary. He has struck a chord among voters by taking a hard line on North Korea, saying he would strike at missile sites before Kim Jong-il could fire off any weapons against Japan.

In my experience Japanese are natural warriors, and there’s some genetic evidence to support that. Their crushing defeat in WW2 pushed them into pacifism, but China and NoKo’s provocations just reset them to default mode.

Taiwan Preparing For War

I predict they have nukes, but don’t expect them to admit it until they use them against a Chinese invasion. So I’ve been looking for indirect indicators, and this may be one:

Taiwan will introduce a new home-grown missile defense shield next year…the shield, known as the Anti-Tactical Ballistic Missile (ATBM), is “expected to effectively counter the threat of China’s M-9…and M-11…ballistic missiles.” The system will…eventually comprise 12 ATBM missiles batteries and an uncertain number of U.S.-made Patriot missiles and early warning radars.

This is a big system, and may be to defend Taiwan’s nuke weapons infrastructure (manufacture and deployment) against pre-emptive missile attack – just as the Russians are now rushing to shield the Iranian nuke program. Taiwan is building its own system because it fears a Dem or RINO president would hang it out to dry.

Other Predictions

The cold fusion destruction of the MSM hasn’t happened yet. But don’t give up hope!

And the Curse of Gandalf has caused IBM laptops to start catching fire.

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