In spite of our difficulties in Iraq, it’s unlikely the thugocracies running Iran and Syria will survive the next two years.
The Brit Times:
President Bush conceded for the first time yesterday that America is not winning the war in Iraq and said that insurgents had thwarted efforts to stabilise the country.
Since the insurgents are supplied and armed by Iran and Syria, we just need to change their regimes out, and that’s not hard.
In this approach, dictators are removed by helping their domestic opponents.
Iranians aren’t happy with their fundamentalist government, even when it rigs elections:
Iranians made their feelings plain about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last week by voting to reject his allies in municipal elections and in the Assembly of Experts, a clerical body that theoretically has authority over Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Syria has an opposition too, and the administration is helping it:
The US government confirmed Thursday morning a Time magazine report that it was working to secretly strengthen factions opposing the Assad regime in Syria.
The Time Web site revealed a report Wednesday that said the US government was working to affect its support for the opposing factions before the Syrian election in March 2007, in an effort to push towards a true democratic regime in the Syrian state.
The opposition is rational – the Syrian and Iranian people want their place in the sun along with the rest of the world. But, unlike us they’ve seen their living standards plummet, their freedoms diminish, and they now face slaughter in a nuclear war.
But this good cop approach won’t work with the current players in Washington. The pro-democracy programs will be run by the appeasers at State, the Dem Congress will crimp the funding, and the NYT will blow the security cover of the Iranian and Syrian opposition.
So that leaves bad cop, as last practiced by President Nixon to bring the North Vietnamese 11 days at the end of 1972:
Operation Linebacker II was a U.S. seventh Air Force and U.S. Navy Task Force 77 aerial bombardment campaign conducted against targets in the Democratic republic of Vietnam (DRV) during the final period of the American commitment to the Vietnam Conflict.
By Christmas most of the legitimate targets in North Vietnam were in a shambles…By the eleventh and final mission (29 December), there were few strategic targets worthy of mention left within the DRV…Total bombing was rounded out by sending (B 52s) on Archlight missions in the southern DRV and in South Vietnam. Once again, there were no aircraft losses to AAA fire, MiGs, or missiles.
This confirmed the US can completely destroy its opponents, even when they’re protected by the latest Soviet weapons.
Our objective in Iraq is a lasting democracy – unitary, federal or 3-state. Given the limitations the US lefty opposition will place on the good cop approach, the bad cop will also be needed, though probably not on the scale of Linebacker II.
The targets are Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and both Iran and Syria’s rocket forces. Both can be eliminated with minimal civilian casualties, and their destruction will reveal the powerlessness of the ruling dictatorships and pave the way for their removal by democratic forces.
And the good news is that such a strike can be authorized by the president, just like Linebacker II.