Come The Revolution(s)?

Large parts of the ruling elites in both the US and UK are working to destroy those nations. However history suggests conditions are now ripe for violent reactions from We The People.

The US:

“I believe myself that the secretary of state, secretary of defense and — you have to make your own decisions as to what the president knows — (know) this war is lost and the surge is not accomplishing anything as indicated by the extreme violence in Iraq (Wednesday),” Reid said.

A Senator in the US Congress provides aid and comfort to America’s enemies.

The UK (my sequencing):

After the European constitution was rejected in referendums in France and the Netherlands, EU leaders are looking at ways of introducing many key changes by amending existing treaties…

…Downing Street confirmed Mr Blair did not believe a referendum would be needed on a new European treaty expected to be agreed during his final days in office.

Blair knows perfectly well that the Brits dislike, fear, and distrust the EU. That makes this close to treasonous.

So, what are the chances these elites will end up dangling from lampposts in the Washington Mall or trees in Hyde Park?

Successful revolutions need three things:

1. Shock

A shocking and widely-felt negative event, like the loss of a war or sudden and massive inflation.

2. Guns

Support from at least two of:

  • the military
  • armed citizens
  • foreigners (e.g. the French King for the American revolutionaries).

3. Professionals

The absence of professional support has caused countless peasants revolts to fail.

Nowadays good engineers and planners can bring down a modern society quite easily, so you need these new professions.

Here’s how the US and UK stack up.

The US

1. Shock

That’s possible if, encouraged by the Dems, America’s enemies kill many more US troops in Iraq and force a withdrawal under fire, followed by a Mideast bloodbath and a high-casualty attack on the US.

2. Guns

Given the Shock, the US would have hundreds of thousands of battle-trained ex-soldiers who would feel betrayed. In fact it must have plenty already.

Plus the US has an armed citizenry.

3. Professionals

The Red states (likely source of any revolution) have plenty of professional people.

The UK

1. Shock

The destruction of Brit sovereignty by the EU has been gradual – that’s how you boil the frog. Still, at some point the frog senses its end is nigh and jumps.

That jump may be triggered by massive unemployment as the many EU migrants to the UK crowd Brits out of  jobs in the upcoming recession.

2. Guns

Very few Brits know how to use a gun, however the Brit army is said to be very disaffected.

3. Professionals

Every Brit professional I know hates the EU, so there would be plenty of volunteers to take it down.

***

Since conditions 2 and 3 are in place in both nations, the critical condition is Shock.

If the Brit and US elites are smart and lucky, they’ll avoid supplying that trigger.

But if they’re stupid or unlucky, or the equivalent of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand happens, the elites are gone.

So it might go.

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2 Responses to Come The Revolution(s)?

  1. Jay says:

    Most of the military is conservative. A majority is red state. Even more so in the combat arms (if I ever ran across a liberal in the infantry, he kept it a closely guarded secret).

    However, as long as Bush is in the White House I can’t imagine the military “joining the revolution”, just as I can’t picture them shooting at American citizens. I think they’d likely sit it out, possibly just protecting the White House (which would likely be just fine with the mob, it’s congress and the senate the mob is after). Which just leaves the police. Slightly less probable, but still probable, the police (mostly conservative and pro-military) would follow the lead of the military except they’d more actively engage in protection of private property and historic monuments, medical evacuations and similar (a politician hanging from a tree wouldn’t be a high priority). Not much choice, no US police force could stop a million heavily armed, pissed off Americans.

    Now if you want to put this in a possible future, with Hillary in the White House, the odds of the military helping the mob (or at least to the extent of aiding the police with what they’re doing) goes way up, the police helping the mob slightly less so.

    The only way a seriously large mob of Americans could screw it up would be to shoot a soldier/cop, which would make things more difficult but not impossible (immediate remedy – mob turns over the shooter to the police or military, and it’s back to the uniformed folks doing minimal “support work” as before. Otherwise, the uniformed types will think “I’m here to protect Americans, but I have to protect me too”).

  2. gandalf says:

    Jay

    Agreed, this is a Hillary Clinton scenario.

    That will leave her with an interesting dilemma if elected.

    She either demobilizes much of the military, putting a mass of enraged veterans beyond her control.

    Or she keeps the Army and tries to lock it down.

    Neither seems likely to work.

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