Deterrence for Dummies

The Russians just ensured that when the US sees any missiles heading for its Ballistic Missile Defenses in Europe, Russia will be destroyed. No doubt Putin did not foresee this, but then neither did anyone foresee WW1.

Here’s Putin’s deescalation-gone-wrong (my emphasis):

When Mr Putin was asked at a press conference on June 4 whether the world was witnessing a return to the times when Soviet nuclear missiles were aimed at European cities, he replied: “Certainly. Of course we will return to those times. Of course we must have new targets in Europe.”

But Mr Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said yesterday: “We were not talking about retargeting missiles at European cities or other targets. What was meant was that if retargeting took place, it would only be the sites [in Poland and the Czech Republic] that would be targeted.

But (unless you believe the US will attack Russia) a Russian attack on the US BMD sites only makes sense if Russia plans a mass attack on the US and wants to minimize attrition by the US BMD .

So an attack on either the two European sites is the equivalent of a big red flag saying !Russia Is About To Launch!

And since the US BMD sites (and their supporting earth satellites) will have by far the best radars in the world, they’ll spot the incoming weapons way before they hit.

That gives the US advance warning of the Russian attack and enables it immediately to launch everything it has at the Russian missile fields and command cities, including Moscow.

So Putin has enabled a nutty (or radical Muslim) Russian head of an SRBM or cruise battery in Siberia to start WW3 and ensure Russia loses it.


And Putin has nothing to show for the deadly peril he’s created for his nation (my ellipsis and emphasis):

Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, welcomed the Russian offer, made by President Vladimir Putin this month, and aimed in part at stopping the construc­tion of a high technology US radar in the Czech Republic. But he said the US plan would go ahead anyway

Mr Gates said: “I was very explicit in the meeting that we saw the Azeri radar (the useless old system Putin suggested the US uses) as an additional capability and that we intended to proceed with the X-band radar in the Czech Republic.”



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