Preparing For the End Of The Affair

Although we hope it won’t happen, in 17 months the world could face a US run by a defeatist Democrat President and Congress.

Realists are thinking through the consequences – here’s an Israeli take.

YNet News:

Israel must prepare for possibility that its alliance with US will diminish

The new defense memorandum between Israel and the United States was signed this week. According to what is known to the public, the memorandum includes a plan for boosting the American defense aid package to Israel to a sum of $30 billion, which will be spread over the next 10 years starting in 2008…

For about 40 years now, the close relationship with the US has been a pillar of Israel’s national security…

This reality is changing. The engine of change is America’s floundering in Iraq and the waning hopes for victory there or a quick and elegant exit. In addition, at this time it is hard to see the US acting decisively in order to curb the nuclear project advanced by Iran, which is increasingly reinforcing its status as a regional power with a blatant anti-American agenda…

This reality will lead to a reassessment of America’s interests and priorities in the region, to be undertaken at the beginning of 2009 at the latest, as a new administration takes office. It is unclear what new global perception will guide American policy in the post-Bush era and to what extent will Israel maintain its special status…

Another aspect of this process sees the pro-Israel lobby and US Jewish community under attack…

As a result, we cannot reject the possibility that George W Bush’s presidency will turn out to be the zenith of the relationship with the US, and we should prepare accordingly…

The message is simple: We must not become intoxicated by the signing of the new defense memorandum, despite the justified sense of joy. In light of the abovementioned trends, it is important that we start devoting some thought and earmarking some resources ahead of the possibility that one day our wonderful love affair with the US will start to dissipate.

Unstated is the obvious – even with George Bush as president, the US is pushing Israel to cede the West Bank to Fatah’s terroristshere’s Ms Rice:

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who is due in the region next week, said Israel needs to end its “occupation” of the West Bank soon.

“I believe that Israel understands…that it has obligations that need to be met and need to be met now, because the future of Israel is not in the continued occupation of the West Bank,” Rice said…

She wants to reduce Israel’s depth to under 10 miles, virtually guaranteeing it’ll have to use nukes if attacked.

So look for the Israelis to start widening their alliances and diversifying their weapons procurement.

Of course preparing for a possible end of an affair sometimes precipitates that very event, so the Israelis have to be very careful.


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