Brit Weather Forecasting

The Brit Meteorological Office’s day to day forecasts are famously inaccurate, so it’s not surprising its longer term predictions are equally useless.

The problem lies in the location of the UK – it’s warmed by the Gulf Stream, but right next to the heat sink of the European land mass, so its weather system is highly complex and volatile.

Brits take the today’s weather as the best forecast of tomorrow’s, and ignore the Met Office – as general Eisenhower (correctly) did when he launched D-Day.

The Met Office does however take itself seriously, thus (my emphasis):

12 March 2007: Britain is on course to swelter in the hottest year since 1659, when records began, weathermen said yesterday.

This year is already 2.7C hotter than average and forecasters say it will smash the record for the warmest year ever if the trend continues. It comes just months after 2006 was named the hottest year on record but that was just 1.35C warmer than usual. This year has seen that difference double so far.

Here’s how 2007 turned out:

31 December 2007: This has been the second-hottest year ever recorded in Britain, according to the Met Office, but 2008 is set to begin with snow and freezing temperatures.

This average is just below the 49.5F (9.7C) set last year, the warmest since records began in 1914

So instead of it being the hottest year in 348 years, 2007 was just the second hottest in 93 years.

Oh well.

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