The Ice Age Cometh

January 30, 2008

As you’d expect with apocolyptic forecasts, the Ice Age has started in Jerusalem!

A heavy snowfall blanketed Jerusalem and the surrounding areas Tuesday night and was continuing to fall Wednesday. As expected, the Jerusalem Municipality decided to cancel school in the capital for the day due to the slippery streets…

The inclement weather swept across not only Jerusalem, as the Golan Heights saw an accumulation of dozens of centimeters of snow.

Actually, Jerusalem is about half a mile high and it usually snows there this time of year. And the Golan Heights are, well, high.

Still, using this as evidence for the Ice Age is no more dishonest than the warmenists grabbing at every heat wave to justify their predictions, or their reactions to unconvenient truths:

Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the U.N. Panel that shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, said he would look into the apparent temperature plateau so far this century.

“One would really have to see on the basis of some analysis what this really represents,” he told Reuters, adding “are there natural factors compensating?” for increases in greenhouse gases from human activities.

He added that sceptics about a human role in climate change delighted in hints that temperatures might not be rising. “There are some people who would want to find every single excuse to say that this is all hogwash,” he said.

The gent is infected by confirmation bias:

…a tendency to search for or interpret new information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions and avoids information and interpretations which contradict prior beliefs…

Confirmation bias is of interest in the teaching of critical thinking, as the skill is misused if rigorous critical scrutiny is applied only to evidence challenging a preconceived idea but not to evidence supporting it.

Still, now we have the name of another Loser.


Winners And Losers From Global Cooling

January 29, 2008

If, as is likely, the world is entering a Little Ice Age, proponents of man-made Global Warning have a rough future – here’s a forecast.

What warming we have experienced is almost certainly due to fluctuations in the sun (PDF), which is about to tank:

…in 2008, global temperatures would drop slightly, rather than rise, due to unprecedentedly low solar radiation in the past 30 years, and would continue decreasing even if industrial emissions of carbon dioxide reach record levels.

By 2041, solar activity will reach its minimum according to a 200-year cycle, and a deep cooling period will hit the Earth approximately in 2055-2060. It will last for about 45-65 years…

But it’ll take time for the tanker to turn – after all, we’ve had no warming for 8 years, and the warmensists are still in full cry. But as 2008, 2009, and 2010 trend colder, and the extra taxes and energy rationing start hurting people, politicians of the Thatcher/Reagan variety will emerge to speak truth to power.

The President and Prime Minister after next will be climate realists who will pull the plug on the whole scam. They’ll probably keep the expanded nuclear power programs since these cut dependence on Russia and Islam, but will get elected on promises to dump all Green taxes and rationing.

So around 2011, things will look as follows.


Poor People

The world’s poor start getting richer:

– The billions on curbing CO2 will be switched to giving them clean water, medical care, and education.

– Poor nations will no longer be blackmailed to cut back on power production.

– The world’s farms will switch back from biofuels to food, so less people will starve.

Rich People

They’ll escape the curbs on personal autonomy (rationed air and car travel), and the deaths caused by power rationing. French pensioners (if any survive) will rejoice.

The Environment

The forests of expensive and ugly wind turbines will be retired, and within a generation the rusting survivors will be tools for school kids to learn about the Age of Unreason (or whatever future historians call the period 1990 to 2010).

World Peace

The impositions needed to keep poor people poor and make rich people poorer will vanish, reducing the chances of insurrections and civil wars.



People will remember the “Scientific Consensus” canard for generations. Institutional science will rank lower than politics, and smart kids will disdain it. That will not be a bad thing, since science will revert to honest amateurs like Ben Franklin and the 19th Century Brit clergymen.

The UN

The UN has wriggled out of many crimes, including Oil For Food and its assault in Israel. But this time it will have harmed every person in the world. So like the League of Nations it will quickly vanish, probably to be replaced by groups of like-minded nations.

The Leaders

Gore and Blair (now a lucrative “Climate Change Adviser”), and other warmenist pols will become pariahs, rather like Nazis at the end of WW2. Their thousands of accomplices in the MSM, science, and politics will have terminally damaged reputations.

The Climate Change Industry

The outfits that trade carbon credits, build and run subsidized “sustainable” power plants, give CO2 footprint assessments, and sell CO2 offsets will become the Enrons of 2011, blighting the careers of their managers and employees.

The Greens

The Sierra Club, the Brit Royal Society and all the other Green shills will be stigmatized, like Nazi collaborators after WW2.

The Color Green

Will become the universal color of bereavement – the new Black.

Letter From Italy

January 28, 2008

The Italian political system is screwed, but it would be even worse if it weren’t.

There’s a good summary of the mess here:

Italy is exhausted with its politicians, exhausted with their easy piety, chronic cronyism and interminable lawsuits, their permanent, quarrelsome presence on TV and sepulchral absence from Parliament, exhausted with the parties they form one day and break up the next, with the coalitions, and the coalitions within coalitions, or across coalitions, or between coalitions, the countless aggregations and desertions, the coteries, caucuses and cliques…

But the essentials of the state are OK – the cops (Carabinieri) are respected as brave and effective, and we feel much safer in their machine gun toting presence than with the invisible and PC Brit cops.

Italy is a Low Trust state, which means its economy has a few giant enterprises mostly assisted by the state, lots of small family companies, and not much in between. That can be frustrating – I spent the weekend failing to find an on-line Italian vegetable seed outlet – they all sell through distributors.

But that means lots of local stores – in our rural neighborhood we’re 15 minutes drive from eight butchers shops, plus a plethora of greengrocers and bakers. The result is food of much higher quality than our central London neighborhood with its fashionable Farmers Market and fancy supermarts.

And when I did find my lettuce seeds (in the hardware store), the packet not only told me the best month the sow, but what phase the moon had to be!

So if Italy’s government became more effective, it would inflict on its citizens the same misery as the Brit government does on its subjects – mass DNA profiling, poor healthcare, bad roads and airports, lousy policing, appeasement of homicidal immigrants, and so on.

Hence there’s zero chance the Italians will give up their way of life to Islam, whereas the Brits just might.


January 28, 2008

The WSJ belatedly agrees with our statement of the obvious on the sub-prime shock-horror.

Beneath every dollar of counterparty risk, and every swap, derivative, or leveraged loan, is a real economic asset. The only way credit troubles could spread to take down the entire system is if the economy completely fell apart.

The MSM will have to find another reason to panic.

It’s The Duty To Be Healthy, Stupid

January 28, 2008

This might be HillaryCare’s campaign mantra. But Brits know the state can’t run markets and has to artificially rations health care, so deliberately killing people.

Clinton’s other policy errors are probably self-correcting – if she raises taxes, the economy will tank, and if she retreats from Iraq, AQ will take another crack at NYC and Washington – in both cases she’ll smartly change policy.

But the Brit experience shows socialized health care, once installed, is hard to remove – the Brit NHS was introduced 60 years ago, and in spite of many inadequacies is still deeply entrenched.

That’s because it provides more power and money to state healthcare suppliers than they’d get in a free market.

Every US doctor I’ve used has been totally focused on my welfare, compared with about half those I’d used in the UK state system.

The cause is despotism – a Brit state doctor has a job for life, no financial connection with the people he serves, and is well paid (my ellipsis):

The average GP (family doctor) earned more than £110,000 (over $210,000)…

Hence this report:

Doctors are calling for NHS treatment to be withheld from patients who are too old or who lead unhealthy lives.

Smokers, heavy drinkers, the obese and the elderly should be barred from receiving some operations, according to doctors, with most saying the health service cannot afford to provide free care to everyone.

Fertility treatment and “social” abortions are also on the list of procedures that many doctors say should not be funded by the state.

About one in 10 hospitals already deny some surgery to obese patients and smokers, with restrictions most common in hospitals battling debt.

This isn’t official Brit state policy, but you can bet these opinions influence clinical decisions.

These doctors are being illogical but not irrational.

Logically, if you don’t operate on fat people, you should deny treatment to homosexuals with AIDS, perform no abortions, and leave drunk drivers to die by the side of the road.

Rationally however, homosexuals have good political cover, abortion is state dogma, and obvious cruelty might cause the populace to rise up.

So they go for the weak targets – the old, the addicted, and the demonized.

That’s the worldview that produced the world’s biggest serial killer, the Brit state doctor who killed 250 of his patients, mostly old women.

The Brit system could be easily fixed by co-pays, as used in the rest of Europe, where healthcare consumers pay part of their bills, motivating doctors to treat them well (or at least not to kill them).

That simple fix hasn’t happened in the UK for the same reason the Soviet Union didn’t reform – the suppliers want to hang on to absolute power.

The Brit doctors’ opinions mirror these (my ellipsis):

The year 1939 was designated by the Nazis as the year of “the duty to be healthy.” (The) historical accounting of how the lives of children and elderly were decided is chilling.

It’s sad to see this malign philosophy reappearing just 60 years after the Nuremberg Trials.

Open Borders, UK Style

January 27, 2008

A minor political scandal throws a revealing light on Brit immigration policy.

The story:

THE health secretary Alan Johnson became the latest cabinet minister to be embroiled in a scandal over donors last night after he was accused of accepting cash through a proxy.

A student, Waseem Siddiqui, said he was asked by his brother, a local Labour party official, to write a cheque for £3,334 towards Johnson’s failed bid to become deputy leader…

Siddiqui, 50, from Pakistan, who has lived in Croydon, south London, on a student visa for the past three years, said his brother Ahmed Yar Mohammed, who is treasurer of Croydon Central Labour party, told him to write the cheque in June and then gave him the money.

“He said, ‘You write a cheque, I write a cheque for that, for the Labour party,” Siddiqui is said to have told the Sunday Mirror newspaper. “That time I have no money, no job.”

…Johnson’s camp said last night that Siddiqui was known by volunteers in his campaign and lives near the minister’s south London home. He is named on the electoral register and is eligible to make political donations.

If this report is accurate, then:

1. Brit immigration allows 50 year olds to enter the country on student visas.

2. Immigrants to the UK on student visas can take jobs.

3. Immigrants to the UK on student visas can vote, (unlike Mrs G and myself – we’re non-resident British citizens).

4. There are lots of Pakistanis in the governing Labour party.

This explains why Brit natives are getting upset with their government’s immigration polices.

But it doesn’t explain why two guys called Waseem Siddiqui and Ahmed Yar Mohammed can be brothers.

Clinton/Obama = Iran/Iraq

January 27, 2008

As with the Iran/Iraq war, the civilized world must must pray both parties lose – Clinton would hand Iraq to Iran, Obama would keep on killing new borns.

Here’s an AP factcheck on Obama (my ellipsis):

(In the Illinois legislature) several of Obama’s “present” votes (equivalent to abstention) involve abortion: a ban on certain late pregnancy abortions, a requirement that a minor’s parents be notified and restrictions on a type of abortion where the fetus sometimes survives for short periods…

(A supporter of these practices says) she convinced Obama to vote “present” (since)…a “present” was as good as an outright “no” because it kept the bills (banning these practices) from reaching the majority need to pass.

From which it follows that Obama supports “certain late term abortions”, wants to hide kids’ abortions from their parents, and favors abortions in which (my ellipsis)

….the fetus is extracted “past the navel [of the fetus]…outside the body of the mother,” or “in the case of head-first presentation, the entire fetal head is outside the body of the mother,” in order to cause death of the fetus.

…a doctor may extract a (living) fetus past the navel and then decapitate it.

Obama’s use 0f procedural tricks to hide his support for these acts makes him a coward and monster.

The AP’s use of Nazi euphemisms to protect this man confirm its own depravity.